Randometer
1 Since we're on the subject of retraining intuitions [https://mindingourway.com/respect-for-large-numbers/], I was reminded of a little shell script I created a few »
Respect for large numbers
This is the post that I tried to write last time, but it accidentally turned into a monologue on caring [https://mindingourway.com/on-caring/]. Oops. The posts that I »
On caring
1 I'm not very good at feeling the size of large numbers. Once you start tossing around numbers larger than 1000 (or maybe even 100), the numbers just »
Newcomblike problems are the norm
[Note: This post is part of a set of three where thoughts related to my job leaked into the blog. They don't really fit with the surrounding posts; »
Calibration tools & perverse incentives
I find it useful to know how well calibrated my predictions are: of the events to which I assign 80% probability of occurence, how many of them occur? If a »
An introduction to Newcomblike problems
[Note: This post is part of a set of three where thoughts related to my job leaked into the blog. They don't really fit with the surrounding posts; »
Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory
[Note: This post is part of a set of three where thoughts related to my job leaked into the blog. They don't really fit with the surrounding posts; »
Anticipating disaster
I moved to the San Francisco bay area about five months ago. Earlier this week, the bay area experienced a pretty big earthquake [http://online.wsj.com/articles/strong-california- »