Randometer
1 Since we're on the subject of retraining intuitions, I was reminded of a little shell script I created a few years ago in order to train my intuitive understanding »
Respect for large numbers
This is the post that I tried to write last time, but it accidentally turned into a monologue on caring. Oops. The posts that I expect will be short have »
On caring
1 I'm not very good at feeling the size of large numbers. Once you start tossing around numbers larger than 1000 (or maybe even 100), the numbers just seem " »
Newcomblike problems are the norm
[Note: This post is part of a set of three where thoughts related to my job leaked into the blog. They don't really fit with the surrounding posts; you may »
Calibration tools & perverse incentives
I find it useful to know how well calibrated my predictions are: of the events to which I assign 80% probability of occurence, how many of them occur? If a »
An introduction to Newcomblike problems
[Note: This post is part of a set of three where thoughts related to my job leaked into the blog. They don't really fit with the surrounding posts; you may »
Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory
[Note: This post is part of a set of three where thoughts related to my job leaked into the blog. They don't really fit with the surrounding posts; you may »
Anticipating disaster
I moved to the San Francisco bay area about five months ago. Earlier this week, the bay area experienced a pretty big earthquake. As an aspiring rationalist, I keep an »